1. SPOTLIGHT: What new analytics are fueling baseball decisions?
Tracy Altman spoke at Nerd Nite SF about recent developments in baseball analytics. Highlights from her talk:
– Data science and baseball analytics are following similar trajectories. There's more and more data, but people struggle to find predictive value. Oftentimes, executives are less familiar with technical details, so analysts must communicate findings and recommendations so they're palatable to decision makers. The role of analysts, and challenges they face, are described beautifully by Adam Guttridge and David Ogren of NEIFI.
– 'Inside baseball' is full of outsiders with fresh ideas. Bill James is the obvious/glorious example – and Billy Beane (Moneyball) applied great outsider thinking. Analytics experts joining front offices today are also outsiders, but valued because they understand prediction; the same goes for anyone seeking to transform a corporate culture to evidence-based decision making.
– Defensive shifts may number 30,000 this season, up from 2,300 five years ago (John Dewan prediction). On-the-spot decisions are powered by popup iPad spray charts with shift recommendations for each opposing batter. And defensive stats are finally becoming a reality.
– Statcast creates fantastic descriptive stats for TV viewers; potential value for team management is TBD. Fielder fly-ball stats are new to baseball and sort of irresistible, especially the 'route efficiency' calculation.
– Graph databases, relatively new to the field, lend themselves well to analyzing relationships – and supplement what's available from a conventional row/column database. Learn more at FanGraphs.com. And topological maps (Ayasdi and Baseball Prospectus) are a powerful way to understand player similarity. Highly dimensional data are grouped into nodes, which are connected when they share a common data point – this produces a topo map grouping players with high similarity.
2. Will AI replace insurance actuaries?
10+ years ago, a friend of Ugly Research joined a startup offering technology to assist actuaries making insurance policy decisions. It didn't go all that well – those were early days, and it was difficult for people to trust an 'assistant' who was essentially a black box model. Skip ahead to today, when #fintech competes in a world ready to accept AI solutions, whether they augment or replace highly paid human beings. In Could #InsurTech AI machines replace Insurance Actuaries?, the excellent @DailyFintech blog handicaps several tech startups leading this effort, including Atidot, Quantemplate, Analyze Re, FitSense, and Wunelli.
3. The blind leading the blind in risk communication.
On the BMJ blog, Glyn Elwyn contemplates the difficulty of shared health decision-making, given people's inadequacy at understanding and communicating risk. Thanks to BMJ_ClinicalEvidence (@BMJ_CE).