Papers We Love: Judgment Under Uncertainty / Cognitive Bias
"Big E" vs. "little e" evidence, and probabilistic thinking.

1. “A gut is a personal, nontransferable attribute, which increases the value of a good one.” This classic from Harvard Business Review recaps how policy makers have historically made big decisions. It’s never just about the data. A Brief History of Decision Making.

2. A reminder to look for the nonobvious. This analysis examines differences in parole hearing outcomes: The usual suspects, such as crime committed, don’t always explain why one prisoner is paroled and another is not. Turns out, it’s best to go up first thing in the morning. [NY Times] Do You Suffer From Decision Fatigue?

3. Prisoners aren’t the only victims of decision fatigue. Doctor ‘decider’ skills fade after lunchtime (bring snacks). Researchers analyzed billing and electronic health records for 20,000+ patients. About 5% more got antibiotics prescriptions later in the day. Findings in JAMA Internal Medicine. Data Shows Docs Prescribe More Antibiotics Late in Day.

4. IBM sponsored a paper by Ventana Research connecting advanced analytics and business intelligence, making the excellent point that unless BI insights “are inserted into decision-making processes,” they have minimal value. (And then sadness. Ventana weakens their case with “Robust new technology enables better decision-making.” How do you measure ‘robust’?) Available at Advanced Analytics Enhances Business Intelligence.

Posted by Tracy Allison Altman on 07-Nov-2017.

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